Houston, we got a problem here...

Disclaimer!

The post below is purely a case of my personal opinions. Believing my words is like taking a senseless risk. Or rather, it really is.

Apparently, my blogging schedule may have hit a snag. Earlier today, something happened. Basically the EU has a problem and that problem has a name. It's called Brexit. As expected, stock markets all over Asia hit a kamikaze nosedive. So what does the whole thing mean for the global economy? Or rather...

...is it all doom and gloom for regional economy?

Believe it or not, seeing the sterling pound hitting a 30 year low may not be the regional equivalent of the Titanic. Yes, I admit it's a disaster in terms of the currency market. However, things may not be that straightforward. After all, no one expected anyone to stop Apocalypse until Cable showed up.

Note: It's quite obvious that British investment in any given country will be savagely hit. Period.

So who will take over after Cameron steps down?

Will it be George Osborne or Boris Johnson? Assuming that it will be the Tory party voting instead of the people, I'm inclined towards Johnson. The reason is very simple: His vocal presence amongst the Tory blokes (and ladies) when it comes to the pro-Brexit issue. Ironically, Johnson used to be Cameron's greatest, if not one his greatest allies during the recent parliament election where the notion of a hanged parliament wasn't much different from the reality of a landslide win for Cameron and co (read: Ed Miliband was unable to prevent a whitewash defeat for the Labour Party).

Electing Osborne will surely be seen as a show of weakness to the EU. Which basically defeats the purpose of the EU referendum in the first place. Quite obviously the most idealistic way to go about doing it is to get a pro-Brexit bloke instead of a pro-Bremain bloke. A lot actually depends on vote lobbying though (which is bloody obvious anyway).

30 year low: What does it mean?

Firstly, EU's investment in the UK will be vital to how far (and tough) the road to recovery will be. Unlike countries like Switzerland and Iceland, UK's position is basically that of cut and run (read: Some nations actually opted not to join EU). Whether this referendum will leave a bitter taste in Donald Tusk's mouth (and the rest of EU quite obviously) remains to be seen. However, EU's final reaction may easily affect the process of negotiations.

In the world of politics, two things matter. The actual stakes and overall integrity. The former is all about how far you can push the envelope, the latter is about maximising your political stakes. In terms of integrity, the EU is currently pinned against the ropes. However, the stakes are still in its favour. If the UK wants to keep fighting for its rights, it must latch onto EU's Achilles Heel.

Keeping up with the Tokugawas

Around a year ago, I read an article on my country's FTA negotiations with the EU. What struck me the most wasn't President Tony Tan doing the diplomatic visit. Rather, only a few countries beyond the EU boundary have an actual FTA relationship with EU. Needless to say, my first reaction was... well, this.

Let me be this frank: The concept of a close border economy (well, not literally, but you get the drift) is downright stupid. There's a very good reason why the Tokugawa bakufu went belly up. The turmoil known as the Bakumatsu era was down to the error of the shogunate's longstanding tradition of self-isolating. Which is not much different if I'm to look at the EU's so-called free trade policy. If EU wants to survive, it better start with its so-called free trade policy. Just don't expect the US to bail the whole damn organisation out. Especially if another Donald becomes the President of United States instead of the European Council.

Note: Wikipedia shouldn't be the most accurate source of information, so I'll leave it up to you guys to figure this out.

In the event of an Exit...

Exit as in EU pulling out from whatever investments in the UK. Will it spell doom and gloom? Key to whether Britain will become great again lies in its foreign economy planning. Currently, it's better for the nation to start courting suitors (i.e. investing nations) from Asia. In fact, this continent of yours truly has yet to be explored by the EU despite the white people being extremely good in conquering and creating vast empires (I mean come on, surely we can never call the Romans a bunch of black people. Ironically, the first empire in human history may have been founded by a black).

All in all, I can start with four Asians nations.

China:

The current economy of China looks like a paradox. On one hand, its foreign economy is going strong. Domestic wise, that's where questions are being asked. I still remember reading an article shared by my cousin Mark in Facebook where China's domestic economy woes lie in the local corporations. This is where the interesting part comes in:

If China is to start investing money into the UK, the key to how much can be done at least in the short run lies in the sterling pound. A falling GBP means an easier time for the investors. On the other end, Xi Jinping can also utilise UK's help in the longer run where China's economy can start avoiding being held hostage by the local corporations so as to speak (which is possibly what's happening right now).

Japan:

The least expected nation? Not so simple. Under the current Abe administration, Japan has yet to regain the dizzying height achieved by a certain Koizumi Junichirō. In fact, Japan's economy is still in a start-stop phase compared to America's fluctuating economy (read: at least something's happening in Obama's final 4 years in charge). Again, a falling GBP will present at least a decent opportunity for the Abe regime to at least start a bit of momentum via investment. The only problem? The Japanese are basically the most nationalistic people in Asia together with another Asian race. Which now comes to...

South Korea:

In recent years, the Park administration has started expanding its foreign economy reach. In fact, I'm pretty sure something had already been negotiated between 동명성왕 and Dārayava (i.e. trade relationship between South Korea and Iran). However, South Korea is also experiencing an economic limbo of sorts. Whether it was sparked by the MV Sewol tragedy or exacerbated by the whole scandal (and I say scandal due to certain damning evidence which may have implicated the current government as well), it doesn't matter. The fact is, the current outlook for the South Korean economy may still be in a dodgy territory (albeit the last time I saw negative headlines done by CNA was like months ago). Like the Japanese, the Koreans are fiercely proud of their racial identity (something which the Chinese have yet to catch up with). Unlike the Japanese, however, the Korean way of doing business is more malleable more oft than not (read: it seems that Japan has yet to approach Iran. And I'm not referring to nuclear technology). If Park Geun-hye can play her cards right, the UK can easily be another Iran (and I don't mean the religion, nukes, or the Jews). Yes, I'm talking about investment again.

Singapore:

By naming my country, either I must have been terribly crazy or I deserve an honourable mention from PM Lee himself. Singapore is currently entering a transition phase where the focus is now shifting towards the local SME. Whether our local SMEs can capitalise on a much weakened GBP remains to be seen. However, investing in the UK may not have come at a better time. Especially given our slowing economy. The only catch lies in our SGD currency value. A few months ago or so, the MAS decided to freeze the appreciation of SGD. Interestingly enough, I've read via an article a few months ago on how our R&D industry is experiencing a limbo of sorts. Without going into the specifics (since I'm no research officer working in CIRC), let me just say something crazy: In the event where there's a need for specific R&D projects concerning radiography, we have CIRC and the UK has the Sir Bobby Robson Foundation.

Appeal vs Tourism

UK's investment appeal will most likely be brutally hit in the short run. However, a falling GBP also means a potential spike in tourism. If the UK wants to rake in more money to build up a new foundation, tourism is most likely the easiest way to do so. It's like the MAS freezing the SGD currency value where tourism will end up being the most viable option. However, a successful declaration of independence from Scotland will have a devastating effect in this area. Not only will that result in a potential chain reaction (since being English means you're never an Irish as well), the economy can easily end up like the Titanic. No, make that possible worse.

The American factor

Whatever reaction coming from the US will also play a vital role. Traditionally, America and the UK have been close allies. The fact that we got a Brexit won't destroy this relationship. At least not overnight (after all, it's not as if Osama bin Laden was hiding in a nation full of Anglo-Saxons and infidels). At the very least, however, I can foresee the US playing the middleman role should the UK be really interested in Japan converting its JPY into GBP.

And lastly, the future of football

Let's be frank. The FA is definitely pro-Bremain. Ditto for the English football teams across every tier. While I don't see any disastrous changes to the current EU players plying their trade there (unless the EU decides to do something incredibly stupid, that is), the tricky part lies in the future transfer market. Quite likely the clubs may be forced to look somewhere else. Even likelier is that hopeful scenario where more homegrown talents will come to the fore. Pessimists will say the smaller clubs will be at a massive disadvantage. After all, British players are notoriously overpriced. As a result, they're also deemed equally overrated as well. Let me play the idealist's advocate for this once here.

Take for example my beloved Boro. Assuming Steve Gibson received a bid of around 5 million quids for his nephew dearest from Ronald Koeman's current boss. So what should be Gibson Sr do? The wise thing to do is NOT to hold out for a better deal. Rather, he should set an example for Boro's fellow clubs (i.e. all the clubs deemed as small by the elitists). Not for sale, not even for the price of Gareth Bale. In this way, local football development will beneift on the whole. The big players will be forced to do youth development, the smaller lads in turn will be motivated to do the same thing. Ultimately, it will down to how the budget is being managed. Not to mention the players as well of course.

Note: If there's any decent chance of tabloids shutting themselves up when it comes to inflating egos and sales, this will be it.




P.S to the Three Lions: Can you all just show the world how sore in the arse the team is as a result of the referendum?

Sorry, can't find a higher res...

Add P.S: While a Brexit may not lead to an imminent disintegration of the EU, the Brits may have unwittingly pulled off an Edward of Woodstock instead of a William Wallace. In other words, countries like France and the Netherlands will be emboldened to play hardball tactics in the event of negotiating. To quote a beloved knight of the United Kingdom:

Final P.S: At the same time, another beloved knight of the United Kingdom may have something to say as well...